Daily Stock Trading Weblog

1/24/05

2005-01-24T17:08:00.000-08:00

1/24/05
the market is drifting lower everyday...
Many stocks are cheap compared to a month ago... and you should selectively pick the one to enter...
low-mid caps stocks are probably the way to go...
although most of the time, the larger cap stocks should go first...
as you can see the break down of expensive stocks like SNDA, JOBS are huge and fast.... they are probably not going to see those highs anytime soon...but we still like some of the smaller one
we still own LONG ECST AIRN AIRT NINE BWNG CYD
other stocks i would buy at this level (WITH STOP)
JDSU NT TASR RIMM GOOG(DEFINITELY STOP) CYBX EYET PLMO AAPL
after the earning is over, we may probably see some positive movement from the market.... stay tuned.

1/24/05

2005-01-24T16:59:00.000-08:00

Trade Alert

2005-01-20T09:34:00.000-08:00

We covered our GOOG share at 193.5 this morning...(gain of $10/share in 2 day)
Covering SIRI here at 5.6 (short originally at 6.5 and 9)
Bought NT at 3.1
current holding:
BWNG NINE ECST LONG AIRT
we added CYD AIRN yesterday
we added NT today

Raj, SYMC is going to spend some time here...if you don't want to tie up your money here... wait til a break out of 26 to buy... but long term it should be fine...
CREAF is not doing so good today....

Trade Alert

2005-01-19T09:38:00.000-08:00

We entered our short position on GOOG yesterday around 204. See if this reversal will continue.
Alert on CYD: a bounce from 9.7 looks quite good... we are buying it here at 10.3
Alert on AIRN: falling back on the last support area... we are in at 4.25...

Stocks to watch!

2005-01-18T17:00:00.000-08:00

After the bell, YHOO MOT JNPR CHKP all delivered pretty good reports...though the afterhour reactions for these stocks are quite different, the internet sector may get a minor boost tomorrow...
GOOG: watch this carefully as GOOG is breaking its high... we think it is pricey, but who knows if YHOO's result will push GOOG higher tomorrow...GOOG's float is getting larger and larger, so becareful with the selling pressure to mount...
JOBS: disaster today... watch to see if 25 can hold... expect it to see 20 until the dust settle! this is another lesson to learn when you long or short high valuation company... before the drop, the company is really expensive, but momentum is going forward, so the momentum crowd leads... i believe SNDA is expensive as well... but it really depends how long the company can substain its growth rate...TASR is another example .... SIRI is the same, and the drop should soon happen...but you have to look at example like TZOO, sometimes it may take a long time for the market to adjust itself....!!!
EYET: i would pay attention to EYET right now..after a bit of correction, it may worth to look at this again! if it can stay above 40, its a good sign!
the market acts quite boring lately, stay both at long and short to hedge yourself...
at this point, i would consider the following for long:
XMSR NINE LONG ECST OSIP PLMO AIRT AAPL CYD FNSR INSP EYET DITC TERN (CREAF worth to watch right now) SYMC
short:
GOOG SIRI MSTR SNDA NVDA
NOTICE: i don't mean its a good time to long or short on these stocks right now, getting in at the right timing is very critical...watch these carefully!

Monday 1/17

2005-01-17T16:54:00.000-08:00

several names to watch next week, watch the big internet names like YHOO EBAY, both crossed the 50MA. The result should be good, but we will see if profit taking will continue!
NGPS: we have been watching this, don't catch a falling knife, watch the MA, and around 16 area...
AIRT: let's wait and see if this area will hold.. its temporarily oversold, and we need to see a break of 15 for another up trend though!
MSTR: short candidate..temp. oversold, on the upside, it is right where the last gap up area...if it holds 58 area, it may bounce up..but resistance at 60-62
FNSR: volume increased and now at 1.6... just crossed the 200ma...watch and see if this support will hold...
JOBS: becareful at this level... a break below this level may test level around 35...
SNDA: unless it breaks above 40 level...it may continue its downtrend from here...35 is an improtant level here.... expect another side trade around 28-34 level if it breaks down from here...
XMSR: any bounce may become a short opportunity.....
continue to look at RIMM AAPL GOOG AVNX BKHM SIRI NINE
we are in the earning season... after a quick correction at the beginning of the month, are we going to see some bounce? we are right at the 20MA... and temp. oversold ...we need a break above 2111.... let's see what happen....
please let me know if you are looking at any stocks!

Update

2005-01-14T15:04:00.000-08:00

Will come back and update on some stocks this weekend...
Monday is holiday...hope everybody has a nice holiday weekend!

I would like to invite some of you to post/write comments on the main body...please email me with your info... there are many visitors here, and i encourage you to let us know your trading ideas, comments....most importantly, help us to promote our weblog to your friends!
thanks!

Briefing.com

2005-01-14T14:59:00.000-08:00

Recap from Briefing.com

EPIX -36%, ANTP -35%, DNDN -33%, INTX -27%, OLED -26%, AMD -24%, CREE -24%, MPWR -24%, RJET -22%, HDTV -21%, NGPS -21%, SYPR -20%, HRT -20%, GOAM -19%, NWK -17%, ZICA -17%, ISTA -17%, LDIS -16%, GMTN -16%, MGAM -16%, ABMD -16%, ANGO -16%, CRM -15%, TASR -13%

VRST +49%, LCBM +41%, APPX +37%, NEOF +34%, SLNK +33%, HLIT +31%, FARM +28%, AEPI +27%, CLHB +26%, LPL +26%, WLS +25%, RATE +24%, TGA +23%, FOXH +23%, IMAX +23%, LMLP +23%, GMXR +21%

Companies reporting earnings the week of Jan 18th-21st include: Tuesday, Jan 18th: CRAI, FAST, PCP, STT, ABT, BAC, FITB, NCC, RF, SCH, ACO, FRX, MMM, AMTD, ASO, FCX, PH, USB, WFC, FLWS, JCI, HTLD, AMD, LLTC, YHOO, DRL, JNPR, RMBS, CHKP, IBM, FSL, MOT, PLT, SOV, STX, TSS, WSTL, KMI, KMP, RYL, TER, VIRL... Wednesday, Jan 19th: ASML, GM, HIB, LUV, RDC, WB, ETH, EXAR, JEF, MEL, SAFC, APH, BK, CVG, JPM, LU, NTRS, NWAC, PFE, PMTC, CIT, FHN, XJT, SLM, KNX, AMR, RJF, SYMC, QLGC, JKHY, ACXM, COF, DSS, EBAY, EXTR, MACR, PLNR, RDN, SNV, TK, WM, HUMC, IIVI, FFIV, SWKS, DOX, ISSC, QCOM... Thursday, Jan 20th: ISCA, HDI, IONA, MRCY, UNH, DPH, CAL, CMA, F, CBSS, AD, LRCX, WERN, CKFR, ASPT, ELY, MRX, STEL, PVN, AACE, ACS, CAMD, CYT, ELX, HLIT, KLAC, KRB, SFA, SYNA, XLNX, TRID, HTCH, MROI, KANA, CHTT, PLAY, VIGN, DAL, KNSY, NITE, PRXL, AFCO, BEBE, CCBL, CHIC, GDW, IEX, RESP, SIRF, SUN, T, PPG, IGT, REY, PGR, DHI, HDWR, STI, SUN, PGR... Friday, Jan 21st: GE, AOS, KEY, HBAN, WIT, PNC, UTX, AT, BGG, FPL, FO, WL, WY, ADP, CRS, LAB, ICST, AWA, CCUR.

1/13/05 HIGHLIGHT

2005-01-13T18:18:00.000-08:00

SIRI: today's volume is not impressive, although it manage to end up in positive territory. currently at 50MA, it really needs a lot of strength to break 7 to go back and test the high...otherwise, it should continue its downward slide.
NINE: need some ground works here...hope this area can hold, and it should manage to work its way up...one firm upgraded with 13 price target.
JOBS: looks like current downtrend may continue...only if it can break above 45, and hold above 46.5, then it may have a chance to move up...another scenario is to fill the gap, which it did yesterday and today...and bounce right above the 50MA...today's selling volume has decreased..look for the move and volume...
SNDA: watch and see if this area at 37.5 will hold...if it fails to bounce, it should continue to slide to low 32...
AAPL: a black candle, the key is going to be tomorrow's action...minor pullback may happen but i expect 67.5 is the most it will retreat to...if it sucessfully holds up at 70...it should continue its way up....
CREAF: a fail of break out above 16...
SONS: looks like a good follow through... any pull back to 6 is a buy...
LONG: looks like the bottom is in...but too soon to tell...hope to see some bigger volume day...
AIRT: trade back down from yesterday's high, but hope to see a base to develop here... oversold territory...
JUPM: if you still have the short... congrat...it traded down from 24 when we recommended...we closed out early...and its a 25% gain if you cover now...
FNSR: looks like 200MA is getting closer...oversold and they reported good earnings in Dec, unfortunately it came back down and now filled the gap...
also take a look at these stocks:
AVNX BKHM NTE UTSI NILE GOOG RIMM

UP DAY!

2005-01-12T17:25:00.000-08:00

I believe everybody is happy about how the overall market performed... finally we see a better, stronger closing than opening!
Individual stocks perform differently..with sell off on most china stocks....SNDA, JOBS, NINE.. see some strength on LONG!
SNDA: technically speaking, snda is going through its downtrend now...it is hitting its channel low as we outlined yesterday... it may bounce again, but watch any strength to fade with the upper channel ... next support is 35...
JOBS: touched its MA today, and bounced to stand at its previous support...looks weak at this point...play with caution!
SIRI: as expected, a bit of bounce came today...
NINE: ugly... can't really predict what's going to happen next...let's see when the reversal will happen!
BWNG: UGLY! hope a turn around again at last support at 7...
ECST: encouraging sign seen today as volume went up and a nice turn around... although not much gain was seen today..this last gap up area is important for the next move up.... AAPL news may help it tomorrow!
LONG: nice reaction today, its hard to predict the low on these IPO..if overall market starts to improve, it should be okay...
AIRT: nice volume here, hope to see a cross tomorrow above its 200MA... large short interest ...it drops like a rock from 20, hoping for a quick bounce up to 17 area..
just looking at AAPL's chart, stock gap up afterhour to 72, once it digests the gain, it will probably move higher to 90s like what other analysts had suggested...very strong numbers....

Comments and recommendations from our friends

2005-01-11T20:08:00.000-08:00

CREAF: very clearly defined channel, the MA support happen to be just under the support at 14...watch for entry if it breaks 16...

Howard, SNDA all of a sudden looks quite depressing... i looked at its 3 months chart, looks like a down channel is forming it hits 45 in Jan...now the high of the channel is 42.5...if it doesn't break this point, it is going lower, the lower channel stands at 37.5....if it breaks 42.5, things will look better and wait to clear 45....
good luck!

RECAP

2005-01-11T16:32:00.000-08:00

INTC report may save the tech sector tomorrow... let's see what will happen!
basically, our strategy works well, holding some shorts, and pick up a few bargains here and there...
if you have shorted the one that i mentioned at the beginning of the year: wgat siri mstr ostk, you would have made some good money.
some stocks broke its trendline and support and move substantially lower, including: airt cyd ecst long nvec nine
some high flyers got beaten down after a stellar rise over the last few months, including antp, tzoo, ngps, tasr
we have made some purchase today, absorbing soem ECST, LONG, AIRT... all of which looks very oversold...though AIRT is not quite
to its next support yet...again, we are going into our position in order...
as we pointed out, XMSR long, SIRI short is a good strategy to go... also, some optical stocks look like bargain again: avnx, jdsu, bkhm...
we are thinking about closing our short temp. soon... since the bounce is overdue....
let's see how the market react tomorrow...
good luck!

Selling pressure continues

2005-01-11T13:47:00.000-08:00

Just want to drop a quick note now, many high flyers like TZOO ANTP TZOO SIRI are getting hit hard today. As we have pointed out last week, beware of any sell off from AAPL, it did today...ipod sales met the expectation, but not brilliant....good product line though, especially like the new mini iMAC...check it out at www.apple.com
now, XMSR and SIRI are going the opposite way, i suspect this correction will continue. SIRI and XMSR will somehow adjust themselves to reflect the appropriate market cap...
AMD is down big today, we expected AMD to come back down to 20 while it was at 24 last month...this drop certainly caught us by surprise!
We entered NVEC yesterday, stock is benefited from one newsletter today...notice the high short interest ratio on this stock. Beware, its volatile...we will close this position pending the movement of the stock.
Another profitable one is SIRI, continue to trade down...we may close half of our position here, again, you may hedge your position with XMSR. we believe 6 may have some support here...

stock has been trading down, it is a short sellers market, the only thing that worries me here is the lack of big sell off on the big cap stocks... we have seen most mid-small cap back down to earth now... look at TASR! but pick the one that may have potential to run up again...
we will keep an eye on INTC tonight....

Short selling regulation

2005-01-10T16:32:00.000-08:00

I am sure you have heard about the new short regulation rule... here are some of the stocks that i think you should watch (concluded from nasdaq's list):
AAII ANTP APPX BKHM BOOM CAAS CMTN ECST GOAM INFY ISON MWAV NFLX NGEN NVEC TASR TAYD TZOO VERT XING
many of these stocks are down today...but are we really going to see some short covering on these names? illegal or naked short selling are usually done by those big accounts...not you and me...cause brokerage won't let you short if they have no shares to borrow... now they are forced to cover these naked shorts...its common sense that it should create a flood of short covering wave...not quite... i doubt we will see big actions here but fundamentally it may help many of the stocks, even the stocks not listed... less downward selling pressure, these illegal short sell create an imbalance of equity movement, so some equity (especially small float company) can be shorted pretty heavily to drive the price down...and allow them to profit on the long side again..i would anticipate more positive movement on some of the names listed... look at the short ratio of NVEC, TASR, TZOO...imagine the legal + illegal short selling= very big selling pressure that drives the price down... again, don't expect a big run, but i would expect the stock will perform much better than it usually behaves... pick the company carefully, cause some of these stocks got beaten down for reasons!
Best regards!

NINE SIRI ECST LONG JOBS AIRT SNDA NGPS RATE GOOG

2005-01-10T16:00:00.000-08:00

Today's market is quite interesting....although we ended up positively, but the strength died down going to the end of the session. Investors are nervous about the upcoming earnings season...the support here for nasdaq is quite shaky... it can go down and test the next support at 2040-2050 area, or it will move up from here. technically it is oversold and hopefully we will see the gains sustain until the close....
our watch list is not quite pretty today...
our siri short is doing good... if you trade short term only, siri may due for a quick bounce at this support level...but if it trades down below 6.5, reenter again...midterm trend is down right now...
NINE is right at its 10 mark again.
ECST LONG JOBS are all losing ground today.. we have entered some position in ECST LONG today...JOBS currently looks weak, and since its support has broken, we will avoid it now...
AIRT: as we pointed out...once it broke its support, it continues its free falling...stock is very oversold...smalll float with huge short interest...make sure to watch this as short covering should drive this stock higher when it starts to turn... solid support at 10, you can plan your entry from here now to play the bounce...
SNDA is acting very strongly today... look for another leg up if market continues its uptrend.
I would also buy PLMO now, showing very strong strength, and poise to go up...
NGPS has broken its support, and down big again... any bounce is imminent but is very risky...no trend line to support. small float and a very volatile stock.
short candidate to consider: RATE-quite strong, but watch if it will reach 20, its resistance area...if it breaks from here, will enter just below 16...
GOOG: short again if it reaches 200? it should start its run up again if history repeats...lockup is close by, and if there is no downward pricing pressure, short will cover....but next month's lockup share is huge..the total pool will be much bigger...i would anticipate a bigger pressure starting late Jan...

RIMM GOOG SIRI SONS NINE SNDA JOBS AIRT ECST SYMC LONG SNDA WGAT NGPS ANTP NVEC

2005-01-07T16:59:00.000-08:00

RIMM: bounced off from its last turn around point in NOV... looks like a trading buy here... stock is way oversold, solid support at 70 with 200MA at 68 as a cushion..
SIRI: continue its run down..stock is approaching its 50MA and may have some support there...
GOOG: very positive bounce during this trading day, watch out for another run before the lockup...
SONS: can't get in cause it didn't hit our target, but its up 10% today...strong!
zapz: may be another opportunity for a quick trade...this stock is driven by news...
NINE, SNDA, JOBS: nothing new here, still right around the support...looking for its way, one way or the other!
AIRT: looks oversold, but its trendline act as an resistance now.. a quick trade could be made to 17...downside support at 15, then around 12...
ECST: right on its last gap up level... short term oversold, see if the small float will help propel the stock up...
SYMC: stock should have plenty of support here... short term it would be volatile... if you don't want your money to tie up, wait til it breaks 25... but its a long term buy here...
SNDK: looks a bounce from 22.5 signals a start of another run...watch for plenty of resistance around 25-27 area... i think it will stay around that area before the earning...
LONG: strong support at 15...expect a quick turn around from here depending on the market...very oversold.
WGAT: we are closing our short here, hit our target at 4...short at 6.4 when we featured it couple days ago... this may continue to go down to 3 as CES is wrapping up... but as always, we take profit when we think it hits our target.
NGPS: continue to monitor its movement, check out another similar stock with low float: ANTP.... high violatility... NGPS is approaching it 50MA...
NVEC: this speculative play has been beaten down...with high short interest (86%), i won't be suprised to see a quick short covering soon... stock is at its turn around support zone now... two small insider transactions just traded in Jan...
next week we will see more earning news... and no doubt it is going to determine the trend of the overall market...
our strategy at this support/resistance is to get in some stocks that are right at support level, i.e. NINE, LONG, SYMC, SNDK... try to avoid ones that may break down substantially...but those may be the one that bounce first and hard, so either you get in and set stop loss, or get in when the market turns up... i.e. SNDA, JOBS, ECST, NGPS, ANTP, GOOG, RIMM. continue to keep shorts in mind...we are still holding core short SIRI, because of the valuation...you may hedge yourself by buying XMSR...3 times more subscriber, but 2/3 of SIRI's market cap...again. We like the satellite radio/audio business, but currently, the market is ahead of itself... also other short candidate: GOOG (either way..depending on the trend, expensive stocks but high short interest), OSTK, MSTR, RATE (recent run up to its resistance, it may continue its run, so watch for weakness).
For those of you trying to find long term buy, take a look at JDSU, AGR, of course, our long term play: BWNG.

ECST LONG SNDA JOBS CYD NINE ZAPZ SYMC RIMM GOOG SONS JMDT UTSI

2005-01-06T17:05:00.000-08:00

another boring day today on the market, some stocks are temporarily in oversold position. Technically, it is due for a bounce, but the enthusiasm that we saw before the holiday seems to fade quite a bit. The overall market has tried to bounce from its support, after yesterday and today's testing on support, tomorrow we should know if the next step for the market is up or down....watch the support level closely...
short term bounce play:
ECST LONG SNDA JOBS
they are all still showing signs to be the first to bounce if market improves...all right at the pivotal point...note that ECST and LONG both have very small float
CYD is slowly breaking down, watch for the solid psychological $10 level....NGPS: high risk play, today's bounce has failed, but this stock has a very small float, short covering may soon come in at this level...
NINE: very disappointing, just waiting on its support again...
zapz: this otcbb stock is an interesting one to watch... we have been watch it going back and forth between 3-4-5 for a while... they are the sole distributor of smart car here in US, i believe they have more news coming regarding that...also other fuel efficient cars news that may propel the stock higher.. i would advise to buy for quick trading only at this point...
mid term play:
SYMC: technically doesn't look good, but at 21-22, the down side is very limited. Recommend for longer term buy...
RIMM, GOOG: RIMM's support is coming again, last time it bounced from here around 74 back to 90 with some positive news...without any news, i am quite concern about RIMM's ability to move back up to 90 from here. but we will play for a bounce if it hits 72 area.. GOOG is showing some weakness, market's weakness is causing some downward pressure on this big cap, again, the pattern tells us that GOOG may stablize soon and back up when the lock up day hits...
SONS: looks for a reentry if you like VOIP...plenty of support at 5-5.2 level...
JMDT: with favorable guidance, it may start its run from here, watch for any move above 20...
UTSI: after the bell, UTSI warns, this is not the first time, but keep this stock in mind, we picked this up when they warned last time, hit 15 and climbed back up... very solid business, but i think they have problems with giving guidance...
note that earning season is coming again... beware of those high flyers like AAPL, OSTK, EBAY, AMZN, etc...

1/5/05

2005-01-05T16:28:00.000-08:00

Nasdaq closed right at the support that we pointed out yesterday... it did bounce intraday at this level, unfortunately, it cannot resist the selling pressure...
let's take a quick look on our list:
short term play:
PLMO-at support now,
zeus-pay attention to 25, if it holds, it should have another leg up,
ECST: just inch above last gap up in Nov, large short interest, it will be interesting to see, repeat of OSTK's run?
JOBS, SNDA: looks like current sell off have put these stocks back to its initial support...if they don't break down from this level, for sure it will bounce big with the market...
SNPS: right on its trend line and inch above its large support area...
FNSR: right above its large break away gap area, bounce from here, or a break to below...
LONG: oversold, 15 is a better support, but this minor support may serve as a base for a bounce
Midterm:
AVNX, BKHM
Long term:
SYMC-after hour downgrade may put some pressure on the stock, if it breaks hard from here, watch out the next level at 22.5. stock is oversold and we doubt it will create too much selling...
watch list:
WGAT: if you shorted this stock, you have made pretty profit in 2 days... watch for any rebound from here...but i expect this stock to come back down to 3-4 level after the CES.
JUPM: continue to drop, if you have this on your short list, also a 20% profit in a week...
AIRN, AIRT, CYD: still watching to get in...
XMSR, SIRI: both making news, but XMSR slowly losing its momentum, while siri continues to stand out... now there is a 2.5 billion gap in their market gap....
i like XMSR a lot here, but even with 5.5m as projected for next year, the business is still not profitable yet, and stock is still expensive... it may take up to 2-3 years for them to reach 10M customers, and at that point, this stock valuation will make more sense... siri should be standing at 5 if there is no hype or "momentum" ....
the overall market is very weak, but there are bright areas... many stocks are coming down hard during the last few days and are sitting at their support level...
watch for those momentum stocks to move again.

NINE GOOG JOBS WGAT SNDA PLMO SYMC CYD AIRT TONS ZEUS LONG AVNX MSTR ECST

2005-01-04T17:32:00.000-08:00

very interesting day today, two big down day in a row...are you going to see some lights?
watch for the MA support at 2092 level... we may see some carry over from today, but i expect a bounce back after hitting this support tomorrow...
NINE: bounced back from its low at 10 today, closed down 22 cents...not bad considering the intraday drop, continue to watch this..
GOOG: very weak today, short is playing for the next lockup, bulls are playing with another bounce from its large pivotal point...and also the larger and larger short interest position...
JOBS: looks like the support will hold... this looks like a short term buy for a bounce...
WGAT: some weakness during the close with the broad market, wait for the real weakness to short...
PLMO: buying for a quick bounce from here....
SYMC: back down to its trend line.. mid term buy for this stock...
CYD, AIRT: look to see if the entry target is reached...
TONS, ZEUS: interesting and low float steel stock, looks like ZEUS hasn't had its run compared to TONS... ZEUS looks more promising at this point,
some stocks for you to check:
short term bounce:
LONG, ZEUS, CHINA, BKHM, FNSR, PLMO, JOBS, SNDA, ECST
midterm play:
SYMC, NINE,
short:
MSTR(trendline broken, wait for bounce to short), WGAT,
WATCH:
AVNX (broke its trendline), ostk(touching the trendline),

2005-01-04T01:00:00.000-08:00

just to touch on some stocks briefly...market is really ugly..if you have some short, good...!
wgat: we offered cautions if you want to go short..watch for first sign of weakness before shorting it...
bwng: really weak..our long term hold has pull back almost 20% if a matter of week..let's see
NINE: surprisingly weak, after opening strong, it slumps to 10.1 level...previous support...and bounced
GOOG: can't hold the 200 mark, shorts are coming in strong today...watch for a bounce back up though! becareful if you play this either way...
SNDA: the trend is broken, but previous support may hold...see if a bounce will come up ...
JOBS: dropped quite a bit intraday to 46, looks very weak at this point. the bouncing point today is right where the trend line is, so see if JOBS will bounce from here.
CYD: looks weak here...initial support is broken, wait to see a buying opportunity will come or not...
AIRT: same here, target entry price: 15...
TONS: big move today...along with other steel group...
PLMO: we are entering PLMO at 29.5 today... touched 200MA and see if this major support will hold...

EVOL ERTS CALL SNDA BWNG NINE JUPM AIRN GOOG RIMM XMSR WGAT SIRI AIRT

2005-01-03T18:08:00.000-08:00

EVOL: close at our recommended entry price...put a stop at 4 if you want to play the move...
ERTS: dropping volume is larger, the stock may bounce from here, it is sitting on its trend line established from Dec... if it bounces, don't short...if it breaks down from here, enter short! stock is still overbought.
CALL: dropped at the opening of the trading day...the stock broke its trend line today...next support at 13, then stronger one at 11....
SNDA: the trend line is now right at 40... MACD will also cross over if it breaks from here...
BWNG: again at support level here at the trend line...
NINE: breakout coming? looks like a converging pattern is forming, and we should see a move soon!
JUPM: did you short? we did at 24, and we covered today... these are our short play, and we are happy with a $2 profit on a quick trade... initial support at its trend line at 21...stock is still overbought...
AIRN: we booked a profit at 5.4(preset sell price), a profit of $1 (20%) in a week or so...not bad...
take profit if it continue to drop tomorrow.... we continue to like its long term prespective though....
GOOG: did we say GOOG will challenge 200 and break out from its previous high...? you bet! it did it today.... look at today's chart, and you see how many people put a stop cover or stop buy at 200... a surge in volume and surge in price once it hit 200.... driving the price up above 202...
remember two more lockups are coming, Jan's lock up may not be strong enough to drive the stock price down...i would be very careful to short at this level...
RIMM: doesn't look good, RIMM broke its trend line from oct... any bounce from now would be considered as a short opportunity... i would buy for a quick trade at 75 level...volume has increased substantially....
WGAT: another opportunity to short? becareful for this breakout, i would short if it reverses...but since it closed above the previous high...i would watch it carefully.... very volatile!
XMSR looks worse than SIRI today... again, too much support for SIRI...and it is really insane ...
XMSR is right at the support on it MA....
AIRT: looks like a buy is very close to us...watch it carefully....

EVOL ERTS CALL MSTR--BWNG SIRI NINE SNDA JOBS CYD AIRN AIRT

2005-01-02T19:37:00.000-08:00

MSTR: after coming back down from its 50MA trend line at 62, it may prove that the trend will start from here... if you go short from here, put a stop just right above 62... but it looks like the next move is down...
EVOL: big volume up day and it broke its trading range....strong resistance at 5, previous 5reistance around 4 now serves as support, if you are waiting for a pull back to get in, try the 33% retracement at 4.2..it may dip a bit on monday and watch for the bounce at these period... stop near 4
ERTS: stock was rising with declining RSI and MACD... that's negative... stock is way overbought... looks like a break from here is possible...
CALL: very low volume stock callwave, this stock has doubled since Nov. after a break out at last high at 12, the stock was trading along the 10MA line, the trend is still up, but RSI is looking weak...and way overbought! if trend line at 15 is broken, it should start its downtrend soon....

we continue to look at our stock watch lists: siri, bwng, nine, jobs, snda, cyd, airn, airt, xmsr, and more...
Jan usually has an upside bias...so plan your trade, don't trade against the overall market...

2004 Gainers and Losers

2005-01-02T17:06:00.000-08:00

2004 Biggest Gainers
Stocks over $1 posting the largest percentage gains over the last year include: IOTN +2,040%, TZOO +1,056%, TRFDF +967%, CGM +723%, ANTP +646%, RIV +641%, DCAI +473%, NGPS +472%, HWG +441%, LNG +439%, GRA +431%, JUPM +428%, CNLG +412%, CFS +400%
2004 Biggest Losers
Stocks over $1 posting the largest percentage loss over the last year include: AAII -87%, NTPA -86%, GNTA -84%, BEL -83%, TRPH -83%, ITIG -82%, CHR -82%, FLYI -82%, BKHM -81%, WTSLA -79%, TWH -77%, TORC -77%, PROX -77%, LENS -76%

Our readers' pick

2005-01-02T16:47:00.000-08:00

ALT: the bounce off its 200MA looks good with great volume. I would keep a support stop at 1. Looking good for another bounce from here....
ENMD: range bound trading between 3-3.5...looks a bit overbought, but the cross over of MA is positive. resistance is at 4...support at 3, if you are looking to get in 2.4 is a stronger support...

Comments from Servant Merchant- our reader

2005-01-01T22:25:00.000-08:00

well written thought, i will start to repost some valuable comments to the main page, so nobody will miss it. If you are interested in contributing to our daily blog, please comment here, i will contact you. I look forward to have more commentators here so we will be able to learn more, and profit more from the market!

The 2005 outlook should be quite interesting. I hate to sound vague without any support, however 2005 can go either way. The only outlook I have to say is "depends".I think the overall outlook of should be positive, even though Iraq does not look too optimistic so far. These are a couple reasons I think that may boost the overall over-the-counter (OTC) and derivative markets.1. Interest rate hike - that never sounded too good, but there are a lot of players in cash position. A rate hike might boost the confidence of "well-informed" investors.2. Though a lot of people do not like our President, but there are a few fiscal and monetary policies implemented during his first term, and we should see the benefits of those policies in our economy. Again, a lot of people might be saying, "those policies only benefit the riches." I think not, the economy is a sophisticated machine, and those policies take time to be effective. Therefore, we should see those policies working more vividly.3. The US Dollar has been going weak against other currencies, Euro in specific. And that will help the US industries in international trading. The EU has been yapping about how the Fed is letting the Dollar go weak, and I think that will be a good sign to counter the trading power of other countries, China to be specific, and the US firms will benefit on that.4. There has been pressure from the G8/G9, however you want to call them, on China's foreign exchange (FX) policies. China has been on a "locked in" FX rate, and that is creating some problems within the Chinese economy. The Chinese economy is facing problems of inflation because the economy has been white hot while the rest of the world soars, plus the Chinese economy is highly inefficient (meaning a lot of information is not public, and investors are not informed). So China will have to go into a floating FX rate to be a more efficient economy. If you were to play in NBA, you gotta follow the NBA rules; you can't have a 35-second high school regulation shot-clock in the pro.But these following things might cast a shadow on 2005's markets:1. Iraq goes completely wrong, US pulls out cuz we are losing too many boys out there, a repeat of Vietnam or Korea.2. Another corporate scandal, a repeat of WorldCom or Enron. We cannot afford another exploit in our own economy system.3. For strangest reasons, the airline industry starts a chaotic consolidation; mergers that do not create positive synergies. As we saw K-mart and Sears, that merger went extremely well, the investors believes that the merger created tremendous synergy. So were Nextel & Sprint PCS and AT&T Wireless and Cingular.4. Other unsystemmatic risks that arise, which they are not in anyone's power to prevent. i.e. a tsunami hits the east coast of US, or other unforecasted economic turbulances.I have a very positive opinion about 2005. If anyone wishes to discuss more with me, please feel free to contact me through the e-mail link on my profile through my personal blog, http://servantmerchant.blogspot.com/ I refuse to write out my e-mail address out right because it will get spammed like there is no tomorrow. I apologize for the inconveniences. Best of luck to all investors, let's be wise and well-informed.
At 10:00 PM, stockrabbit said...
well written post! thanks! yes, 2005 is going to be exciting...i agree with most of the points you raised:interest rate: i think the increasing interest rate environment is going to affect the market a bit...and that's why i think the market is going to be modestly higher in 2005. The only thing that i worry is when housing bubble starts to burst, and it is going to affect the spending pattern, indirectly affecting the economy...whether or not the housing market will start to go down, still a big ????Many stocks are quite overvalued at this level...picking stocks at this level require great skills... momentum trading is good but the key is to watch the overall market trend...Good luck!
At 12:58 AM, Servant Merchant said...
Nice thoughts about the housing market. I think the bottomline on that issue is you will not have mortage rates at 4% or 5%. I think that is not the major issue here. The historical average on the market return is about 7% to 8%, and even if uncle Joe gets a mortage rate of 6.5% today, he is still making good money on his investment strategy.I think a lot of the traders on banking on news, reports, or rumors. If God grants me a wish today on market timing or security selection, I will pick timing with a heartbeat. However, that will never come true. So most of us rely on security selection, and to gain that edge on one's investment compared to the overall rate of return is to be diligent. I cannot emphasize more on studying the industry. Know the industry, then you learn how to get the timing right.Cash position is what a lot of people are taking. The last trading day took a tiny dip, but I think it's just more people moving into cash position. The bond price went up a little, too. So we see two diverse ways of wealth management, literally today. One group backed out of the equity market, the other group went into the fixed-income market, and there is a third group that did both transactions today. I think people are trying to get the timing right, people are watching and waiting.I am curious to see Warren Buffet's stock pick for 2005 because he still has majority of his wealth in cash position. The big players are watching, they are being careful; so should we, because if we were that good, they would be following us, and our names will be on Wall Street Journal front-page everyday. In reality, that's not the case. So I conclude my corny "PIE" theory here:Patience - money doesn't grow on trees, and even if it does, it takes time. Investment takes time to return.Investigate - learn the industries before you enterExploit - be diligent, investment opportunies will arise if you have done the previous two steps.

2004-12-31T10:25:00.000-08:00

GOOG: barely touched 200...and retreat...it may retest again...
SNDA: a little profit taking as expected...if you are short, take profit and protect your investment... it may bounce back up....
SIRI and XMSR are rebounding a bit...still in the trading range...
NINE: pretty good action today, continue to stick with our target price
AIRN: good gain since we entered our position... we may lock in some gain soon...note that
the stock may continue its momentum...but we focus on quick short term gains on these play...
SYMC: look like a bounce from here as predicted..MA cross over nicely....
today is the last trading day...wish everybody here has a happy new year!
i will put more comments during the weekend....!!!

People of the Year

2004-12-30T21:47:00.000-08:00

Congrats to everybody here who share, read, and write blog....
The bloggers are the "People of the Year".
:)

Condolences to Tsunami's Victim

2004-12-30T21:40:00.000-08:00

Before the last trading day of the year, I would like to take this opportunity to offer our condolences to tsunami's victims.

2004-12-30T13:22:00.000-08:00

GOOG: 200 here we come... exactly behaved like what we predicted...GOOG is heading to 200...we are going to see some resistance ahead...look for opportunity to short...
YAKC: up quite a bit today... if you own this one since we mentioned it, congrat... a nice 30% gain in 1 month...
WGAT: has gone down almost 15% since we covered it yesterday... correction should continue but it may consolidate here a bit between 4-4.5
tomorrow will be the last trading day for the year. the trade is going to be thin like today, let's hope for a better trading year in 2005!

XMSR SNDA JOBS WGAT AIRN JUPM

2004-12-30T10:27:00.000-08:00

XMSR: convertible notes is driving the stock down, while SIRI is taking a break here... CNBC's interview and comments on satellite radio is nothing new to those who own both company's stocks... but he is right...purely momentum right now...!
SNDA: another momentum stock? approaching its high again, becareful and watch the resistance here...again, i would play the breakout here again just right above the old high
JOBS: after SNDA, JOBS took off today.... they both acted very good on their support and bounced....
WGAT: continue to slump... watch for next stop at 4....
AIRN: continue its run... resistance at 5.5...
SYMC: still oscillating at 25 level... now the cross over is about to happen... just need some buyer to step in and bring this back up!
JUPM: new high today, but momentum seems slowing a bit... looking for a good entry point here...!
Stocks to watch before, MBT/VIP are doing good, which had about 10-15% gain since the day we mentioned them.. YAKC-after a long wait, the volume went up yesterday, we didn't notice that, and today followed by a big surge...!
did i tell you there are just too many stocks to watch!!!
any other stocks that you guys discovered? please comment on this column....!

WGAT JUPM BWNG GOOG NINE JOBS SNDA SIRI

2004-12-29T09:03:00.000-08:00

BWNG: another big move...approaching psychological resistance at 10... the chart is very pretty...again, i picked this stock based on its fundamental...and the chart turns up to be quite good at this moment...
GOOG: still waiting for its next big move...
NINE: still waiting... should see some movement soon...stay tuned
SNDA: once it broke 40, SNDA shot up to 41, then 42, then now 43... if you want to trade break out from its narrow trading range like SNDA, you may place an order to buy stop at 41... when stock moves above its trading range and start to trade up, you will establish position from that point...some false alarm may happen, but if it turns out to be a big movement, its quite rewarding!
JOBS: will JOBS follow SNDA and retest the high? stocks still look good with support at 50...
SIRI: more analysts are pushing the stock down... look to see if it will break the support at 7!
WGAT: new short, we failed to establish a position yesterday with WGAT, and its down 9% today...we missed the boat, but you may keep it in your short term watch list...stock jumped 2 fold recently because of the $5m order of its OJO video phone, i don't think its deserve a big market cap increase with this kind of news... video phone market is quite intense...although motorola's order is a good sign, but there is no other fundamental news that support the move!
JUPM: new short, the stock seems overvalued at this point, the stock is at a new high, so becareful with any breakout. the stock may reverse from this point, let's see if the break out of 22 is temp and short-lived...

SIRI GOOG SNDK TONS AAPL

2004-12-28T10:03:00.000-08:00

not much news on our watch list stocks, today, i am going to highlight briefly on some of the story stocks.
SIRI: as expected, SIRI is turning south after a fail to run yesterday... the only draw back is plenty of shorts in this stock right now, but because of the valuation, we continue to rate it as sell. BoA came out with comments to sell again, and the analysts note mentioned possible chance to raise capital at this level, something that we mentioned last week..watch for its development.
GOOG: it should move soon to 200...i am not long or short at this point, but see this stock hitting 200 again ....
SNDK: trading at temp support here...watch it at this level....analysts came out with cautious comments.
TONS: our friends comment on this last week...huge run up today, take a look!!! break out one after the other...
AAPL: Mac Expo soon in Jan, expect a run up on any ipod related news....also see other ipod play, such as PLAY...
again and again, watch for online retailers to take a break after the holiday season is over....

Monday after Christmas

2004-12-27T13:14:00.000-08:00

Hope you all had a wonderful Christmas. This week's trading is going to be thin, and i am still in a holiday mode! Let's take a look at some of our watch list stocks.

LONG: slowly approaching our target, stock seems oversold at this point, let's see if we will see a larger leg down with greater volume...
TBUS: watch to see if any bounce will happen from here, watch the 50MA trend down....
BKHM: looks like the bottom at 4.5-4.7 is quite firm...
SIRI: subscription news is out, high volume but the news is not helping it to move higher. looks like the reversal will start from here....
NINE: continue the leg up, need some strength to break 12, hope it will come with high volume...
AIRN: strong bounce off from the low and our entry point, MACD is turning positive, initial resistance at 5.1-5.2, short term target 5.5.
CYD: move back down from 14, the minor reistance area... but support at 13-13.5 still looks good!
SYMC: volume is going lower, MACD is oversold, but the bottom is forming...
SNDK, aggressive trader may buy at any pullback here at 25 where the breakout happened...but stop at 24.17, the 200MA...
GOOG: what a move, we mentioned about GOOG is possible to retest 200 again when it broke out of its trading range...looks like it will happen soon... watch to see if it comes with a break out with large voluem... MACD is not in overbought territory... and it may well go over 200 this time...
SNDA: still hanging in here at 40, get ready to play the breakout on either side!!!
JOBS: watch the initial support now at 45, a slide right from the opening ...

Merry Christmas

2004-12-24T10:18:00.000-08:00

Merry Christmas,
hope you all have a happy holiday!

next week watch list!

2004-12-24T09:27:00.000-08:00

some new stocks to watch:
LONG: Chinese online travel company elong, watch this IPO around 15-17 level. we are seeing similar patterns for most of the IPO recently.... however, becareful and watch the overall market trend to determine the trend ....
TBUS: becareful with these highly speculative stock, looks like a temp bottom is forming, stop loss at 3.6 is suggested...
BKHM: another speculative play, a bounce may come ahead here....

stocks that we are watching:
BWNG: looking very good, i expect the trend will continue until it hits 200MA (11.8). 15 will be the next major hurdle to overcome....
SIRI: it looks like longs and shorts are fighting at this $8 level... siri is going to react to the next news one way or the other, looks like insiders are selling, but the holiday sub. number is really the key...
NINE: quite a bounce and we are seeing what we expected... keep an eye on it...
AIRN: volume has increased, hope it will break the trend line from this point on, and expect some resistance at 5-5.3...
CYD: nice rebound, support still sound, 14 could be a minor resistance here, next move up is 15-16 area.....watch support at 12.5-13.
SYMC: watch the major support here at 25 (200MA), now looks like a little consolidation is needed...indicators point toward oversold conditions, another test off the lows seen last week may happen...
NFLX: bounce off the 50MA intraday, but looks like the stock is going downhill from here. Blockbuster's move is really going to hurt NFLX either way....
SNDK: if you got in SNDK week ago when we looked at, you are making some good profit! It broke 200mA with good volume, indicators are pointing up...buy or any pull back...Solid company and it could well move back to 30 before the earnings....resistance at 27.5-28
GOOG: trend is still up, even with two lockup releases, but the last two phases of lockup are huge, 200 is going to be tough to break... i would be short if it continues to move up from here.

BWNG SIRI NINE AIRN AIRT JOBS SNDA PLMO OSIP CYD LTON

2004-12-23T08:48:00.000-08:00

Santa Rally (not really a rally, but at least its up!) continues....
most of my watch list stocks are green today, looks good!
BWNG: continue to trade around $9, hoping to see some bigger movement soon.
SIRI: i think the holiday sales figure is really going to determine the next move on SIRI or XMSR. Again, it has to surpass 1M mark by a wide margin to move the stock substantially, i do believe they are going to achieve 1M subscribers, whether or not they can get more is another question... again, i believe it should trade around $5-6 with optimism with the company's balance sheet, if any news that dampen their balance sheet, expect SIRI to go lower... with stock's huge outstanding shares, i can't imagine for more stock sales to raise more capital... with stock high at this level, i won't be surprised if they will raise some more capital to make sure they will stay alive for couple of more years....currently they have 500+M on hand, burning 150+M a year, not to mention that extra 100+M starting from 2006 for Mr. Stern and other programming...don't get me wrong, i think satellite radio will stay alive, but XMSR seems to be a better bet right now...nonetheless, the valuations are too high looking at their current balance sheet.
NINE: some light on NINE, let's see what happen next...
AIRN: hope to see some more gains down the road, volume is good, and it should be heading to 5 soon
AIRT: can't stay with 20, and it think it may test the 200MA before i move back up, try 16-17 to play with a bounce with 15 as a major support...it is oversold but wait for the dust to settle, the trend is down...
not much action on GOOG and RIMM, still watching
JOBS: setting up for another move up? looks fairly good at this point...
SNDA: still can't get itself out of its narrow trading range... watch 38-40 closely...one way or the other....
OSIP: slowly slowly slowly turning higher....
PLMO: i think its a bargain around 30, it may take a quarter for it to move back up though!
CYD: looks stabilizing at 13... would add position here , support at 12.5
SYMC: would add SYMC here, support at 25, trend reversal key here as well...if it breaks down from here, look for another leg down...
LTON: looks like support at 8 is holding up fairly well, i don't see the china telecom news as a major hurdle to LTON, similar thing happened to NTES, SINA before on their SMS service...and eventually they bounced back up...

BWNG SIRI AIRN RIMM NINE SYMC

2004-12-22T22:34:00.000-08:00

BWNG: continue to consolidate, if you look at a longer term chart, you will find that this is the first time around that all indicators are returning up...MACD is up, MA cross over nicely, and i am quite convinced that the run will continue
SIRI: on the other hand,SIRI has not been able to get above $8, with MACD turning south, and MA crossing over the other way, i expect the downtrend to start from here.
AIRN: if AIRN can hold and close above $4.5 from here, it is going to reverse the downtrend from the beginning of Dec. i would expect a minor head resistance at $5 then $5.5....
RIMM: i would buy around $75-80 area, since this is the major support area... currently is not oversold, short term indicator still point toward downward direction...
NINE: a good bounce back to 10... our time may have come, hope to see a strong move next...
SYMC: way oversold, and is trading just above its 200MA.... i would aggressively buy SYMC at this point, 27-28 level may have minor resistance...
we will go into more details as far as their support and resistance goes on more stocks...i don't expect too much volume and actions tomorrow as Xmas is getting closer....
happy trading tomorrow!

RIMM PLMO NFLX EYET SYMC NINE LTON AIRN

2004-12-22T08:26:00.000-08:00

Quite many news today, let's visit some of the news on our watch list:
RIMM: the earning report is good, but the forecast is not as good as expected...nonetheless, we would add to it once all the dust settles...around 80+ is a good entry point and keep your stop loss open...
PLMO: same area, and after a 20% cut, PLMO is gaining back some ground today after an upgrade...we agree with the details, but i expect PLMO to trade around 31-35 level for a while before another leg back up... Treo 650 is still a hot product!!!
SYMC: i think SYMC is overdone like i pointed out couple days ago... aggressively add to this if you can, and i expect it to move back up to 30 once the news is digested...a screaming buy here..
NFLX: can't believe what BBI is doing.. $15 is basically a strategy to cut off the revenue supply of NFLX, short term pain, but long term gain....they have the $$$ to do that, good move! On the other hand, not a good move for NFLX, at $17.99, NFLX can breakeven with current 2 million subscription account, if it match BBI to stay in the competition, that is a $3 cut, $6m a month, and a loss of $72m a year revenue, that's $1.5 per share loss if they don't do any cost cutting.... the good thing is they still have $3.2 per share in the bank, it can certainly last for 2 year or more if some cost cutting strategy in place, but they have to continue to keep the customer and grow other revenue stream...BBI's price is good til Jan 06, they are just waiting to see if NFLX will follow their move....
the latest news is NFLX has no plan to follow, this could help if NFLX can continue to keep or grow its customer base without affecting the customer service level, and if BBI found no benefit of using lower pricing strategy to attract customer...i honestly believe that great customer service is the only way to survive at this point, and $3 difference could mean nothing to movie lovers...let's see how this proceed...
EYET: continue its move, and the price on Macugen looks great, higher than expected by almost 50%, and i think based on this, the target looks reasonable .... looks like a buy during a pull back...
NINE: moving back up to 10, hope to see some stronger bounce from here folks!!!
LTON: look at this stock at $8 level....
AIRN: looks good at this point...the bounce has come with strong volume!!! we have added some AIRN yesterday when we pointed out to readers to watch this....

New high for the market

2004-12-21T21:34:00.000-08:00

Market is making new high today, and its just harder to find bargains... the profitable way to trade in this kind of market is to play the breakout, or short when it is overextended...our watch list is the same, and adding more and more each day...I hope you have made some profits on our picks so far... short or long... remember one thing, you don't have to trade if you can't find the right stock, or if the price is not what you are looking for... there are plenty of stocks out there, if you wait and pick the right entry point, it will be more profitable than picking some stocks at the wrong time just because you have the urge to trade....
This is one of the lesson i want to share with you.... DON'T TRADE IF YOU DON'T FEEL LIKE IT, WAIT FOR THE RIGHT PRICE, RIGHT MOMENT, CASH IS KING!!!
we will revisit our play tomorrow again!
Thanks and happy trading!

comments on topics

2004-12-21T21:32:00.000-08:00

Please comment here if you have any specific questions regarding trading, stock market, or anything that is related...and you are also welcome to post your answers/comments to these questions.... thanks!

Thank you for your support

2004-12-21T20:50:00.000-08:00

Its been almost 3 weeks, and our daily weblog has been viewed by 1200 unique investors. Thank you very much for your support, and i would like to ask your support for our weblog. Many of our friends have already posted their comments, stock picks, and the comments are very valuable. Please continue to share your experience, especially the mistakes that you made, to help our readers to learn from the mistakes... please email me or leave your comments, i will repost it on the column....thanks!

BWNG RIMM GOOG SIRI VIP MBT NINE SNDA JOBS OSIP JMDT NILE

2004-12-21T09:08:00.000-08:00

Quite a lot of news today, let’s take a look at our watch list:
BWNG: looking good, steadily moving along, on this long term play, I would like to see a slow moving trend being established. For those of you don’t pay attention to this stock, this stock did a reverse split 1:10 (actually was 1:20 then a 1:1 dividend) a couple of months ago, so at $10, that means it was $1….i played this stock quite a long time ago, thinking that it’s a one of a kind tele stock, it jumped from $1 to $3 in several months… that’s 10 to 30, of course, it’s a little harder now to jump from 10 to 30 in a couple of months (it does happen, but not often)…I bought this stock based on the fundamental…things seem looking better than before because of the broadwing and focal communications addition, hopefully cash flow position could be achieved sometime in 2005…and the float is not as huge as before, even after the stock payment for PIPE, the dilution in stock leads us believe that the stock worth at least $20+….. please do your research before investing….
RIMM: earning is coming, we are against holding thru earnings. Earning should be good, but don’t know if any negative news regarding the lawsuit will affect future earnings…
SIRI: still hanging in there….
GOOG: I would wait for a move one way or the other to play GOOG. Another upgrade today.
VIP, MBT: we missed the boat at 122 on MBT, now its drifting higher to 135…same as VIP, from 26 to 31 in three days! Keep an eye on these …
SONS: very weak, and slowly getting to its support level…
SCSC: watch 60 level….
NINE: still watching, and waiting for a bounce…
DITC: hanging around 15, support is good, but wait for indicator to turn up, cause it may float at this level for a while.
SNDA: showing some signs after an upgrade to 50 dollars…NTES also was upgraded… let’s see if this can support another leg up…. If it can close above 40 today, then its worth to bet on it…
JOBS: good signs on this stock as well…but watch for overhead resistance at 55…
OSIP: I cautioned about OSIP short for several times, the short may be due for some profit taking. When OSIP first announced possible approval for Tarceva, the stock jumped to 90+ and came down, now the stock is different, the drug is approved, Iressa is not on its way, everything just looks way better when the stock was at 90+… I would expect OSIP to digest some gains here and regain its momentum…but beware that NSCLC market is not a huge market, fortunately, besides the gold standard chemo treatment, Tarceva is pretty much the sole oral drug that can help now….i think it should hit 90+ and stay there until some negative news hit again….
JMDT and NILE got some upgrade today… we may add JMDT on any pullback and if it holds 20, but don’t expect any big move anytime soon….i like NILE for some reason…but still online retailer seems to be left out from the online retail shop rally…. Watch this carefully….
Other stock that I watch at this time:
WYNN, LVS, SNDK, AIRN, AIRT, CYD(looks like support is broken, see if it can reverse up), KMRT (good trading range play)…

BWNG GOOG CYD AIRT RIMM SYMC SNDA PLMO SCSC KMRT SIRI

2004-12-20T19:25:00.000-08:00

continue to pay attention to BWNG-on the move, SIRI-news continue to drive the stock up, however, look at XMSR, not moving at all, we are continue to short SIRI; NINE: broke support, wait for bounce if you don't have any position...; CYD: same here, 13.5-14 good support...wait for bounce; AIRT: pay attention to current support, and it has the potential to move down, but keep your finger crossed...; GOOG: split? not yet, but stocks may continue to run until the next anticipated lockup expiration, look at CRM, it went down from 20 to 15 for the past few weeks because of earnings and the fear of large lockup shares...; RIMM: earnings report watch; SYMC: a little overreaction in my opinion...keep watching and play for an bounce...; SNDA: see previous post....

Besides our watch list stocks, here are some other stocks that you may want to take a look.
PLMO: as we pointed out at 35 during the gap down day, this stock is going to hit 30 soon, it is close by, and a nice buying opportunity if it breaks below 30...
SCSC: watch this stock at 60...
KMRT: looks weak, sears-kmart deal is uncertain, not a long term short play, but recently looks quite weak... this stock has a large short position...watch out...

start to pay some attention to some high flyer shopping stock now: OSTK, ECST, SHOP, etc.... NASD is right at its 2 year high, and VIX is at the record low...quite scary for long investors... if we can clear this 2200 (quite a long way), i see a very bright first half of 2005.... but for now, i think we need some good news to drive the market up to that level....

NINE BWNG CYD AIRT SYMC GOOG RIMM SONS

2004-12-20T11:13:00.000-08:00

not much action going on...
some update:
NINE: very weak... don't count on me, but look at JRJC, it may follow its pattern... bounce could happen after another move down here after 10 mark...
BWNG: if you haven't look into this, do your research on this....hoping that the next PIPE payment is going to be made by cash, then the stock could start to explode! way undervalue if you use other telecom stocks as an indicator... no long term debt, cash flow positive expected in 05, cash (after the debt) is about $3.5-4, only $5 for its billion dollar plus all optical network. This is our long term play, not for short term....
CYD: look at it closely, thanks to our readers here....
AIRT: also pointed out by our readers.... look to see if this support holds!
take a look at SYMC, we got out our long position last week after seeing the weakness persist, we are going to monitor this closely, as we think the bounce is due and the drop is too much for such an acquisition....
pay attention to RIMM: earnings this week...
GOOG: i would wait for a good entry point to short, at this point, the stock has too much support from the insti. investors...
SONS: slowly approaching our target $5.... this pure VOIP play was our beloved....we picked it up around $3.5 when it was delisted, and sold it on the rise around $6.... i don't expect it to come down to $4 range again, but the business is booming at SONS, just look at how the VOIP trend is these days.....

NINE repost

2004-12-19T22:20:00.000-08:00

Let's take a look at this ADR. NINE has a market cap of 390m, revenue 16m, with 10m of earnings (hoover.com). It offered 9m shares here. Ninetowns has three main subidiaries: customer software company, digital technology company, and e-commerce company. In Sep 2004, NINE was nominated to be the 14th "best IT 100" in China. NINE was listed at 19th in 2003, and 26th in 2002. Within the software sector, it is the 8th within the business software list. NINE was created in 1995, specialized in custom/export/import business, provide a one stop center for B2G (business to government) service. It has a market share of 87%.
Given the market cap, i would bet that the stock will do well after its IPO debut.

Above info is directly transcribed from NINE's chinese website, hope this info helps some of the friends here!

overall market trend

2004-12-19T22:02:00.000-08:00

Dow now at 10649.92, support 10550 resistance: 10753
Nasdaq now at 2135, support at 2100 resistance: 2171
S&P now at 1194, support at 1188, resistance: 1208

Nasdaq is still above its 20MA around 2120, i would expect the support hold, and we should see a pretty good market before the year ends.
The market should be quiet and calm, hopfully slowly drifting higher before the year ends. We are continue to look at our watch list stocks for now, please let us know if you have any ideas, stocks that you find....
thank you and have a good trading week!

Stocks mentioned in our comment section

2004-12-19T21:41:00.000-08:00

Thank you all for your comments. This is exactly what i am hoping for. To get all of you involved in finding stocks that are about to move. Again, there are stocks for 401K, which we can identify and use "buy and hold" strategy, such as PFE last week, or even MRK, cause they continue to pay handsome dividend. For most of us here, we want to id stocks that are moving, long or short and exit with profit. For new investors, i would suggest you paper trade and practice to take your emotion away from your daily trading business. If any readers have any comments about a particular topics, please feel free to comment on it.
Here are couple of stocks that our friends provided:
CYBX, we highlighted this stock before, and i completely agree with the strategy listed. Option is a good tool to hedge your investment in stocks that are on its move, or if you are participating some news ahead. remember time is money in the world of option.
AIRT: i looked at this stock last week, MACD and RSI both look like the stock is poised for a move. it is a violatile stock. I would expect a bounce off from this level. If this support fails, i would expect a quick run down to 16 and bounce back up.
IMMR: looks good and i hope break out is going to happen soon. if it does, congrat, and it should clear its way to 8 ...
CREAF: doesn't look good here, i would think that this stock is going to hit 13, the 50 day MA. if this temp 14 support can hold, then it may have a chance to rechallenge the 16 level. at this point, the odd is pointing downward.

please use your judgement when evaluating our comments. thanks!

2004-12-17T13:53:00.000-08:00

loser:
ZVV -50%, WBC -50%, LCAV -35%, BLUD -33%, ABTLE -30%, FF -22%, MKTX -21%, RFMI -19%, SYMC -19%, TUES -19%, VLTR -17%, COHT -17%, CYD -17%, CTRX -17%, NVI -16%, ADTN -16%, PLMO -16%, HRT -16%, JMDT -15%, GDW -15%, MOBE -15%
winner:
EVST +90%, MANC +67%, SGH +57%, ANTP +55%, IMPC +49%, ORBT +46%, OSIP +43%, CDIC +37%, IES +36%, NSS +34%, PILLE +33%, TRGL +32%, TONS +32%, CKCM +29%, ISON +28%, SRLS +27%, MFRI +26%, INFS +26%, HUBG +26%, ZOLT +25%, BLTI +24%, LNG +23%, WPTE +23%, LNG +23%, HTM +23%

PFE OSIP CYD RIMM GOOG SIRI NINE VIP MBT

2004-12-17T13:40:00.000-08:00

quite a lot of news today...
PFE's celebrex, its a good time to use your 401K account to buy PFE now.
OSIP: 40%+ gain, becareful short, as it may continue to go up after some consolidation... the news is unexpectedly good for OSIP.
CYD: a stock suggested by one of our friends here, may take a couple of days to find a base, the support is right here at the close, followed at 12, so if it holds, i would enter the stock.
RIMM: report next week, a blow out is expected again...but remember what happen to PLMO..... we are examine this stock abit later.
GOOG: is finding some bid here, again, the trading range is tight, and if it goes one way or the other, the move is going to be huge after this long of consolidation... it may move up to 200 before jan or feb because of the short covering if the stock is continuously supported by the large fund.
SIRI: trading range... i am still waiting for break out below...
NINE: no action here, hopfully it is going to act up soon...
VIP, MBT: watch these stocks, wanted to enter MBT yesterday at 122, but didn't... now is 130+...VIP is still in trouble, and i suspect MBT is going to trade down again ..... keep an eye on these...

JOBS SNDA OSIP NINE BWNG PLMO

2004-12-17T08:49:00.000-08:00

TGI Friday!
JOBS is rising today in respond to a favorably report, see if this reversal is sustained by a strong volume.. we may see another upsurge, but place a stop loss if you go long....
SNDA is loosing some momentum and doesn't look good, looks like a leg down from here is possible now!
OSIP: up 44% now, i expected the news should come in late dec, well, unfortunately, we closed the position several days ago, and was hoping to re enter our position to play the news.... i hope you have some position in this when i featured this.... !!! :)
NINE: still playing around 10 level, hope the bounce to come soon!
BWNG: look at those beaten down telecom stocks, MCLD, COVD, and BWNG, they have been on fire lately because of news....we expected the Dec 15 move, but we are hoping to see BWNG to get some more actions because of its valuation.
PLMO: down big time, if you are short on this, congrat! We don't have any position on this, and their earning is just a bit disappointed! It should trade back down to 30 in weeks...

NINE GOOG JMDT JOBS SNDA SIRI SYMC APOL JNPR OSIP

2004-12-16T13:05:00.000-08:00

yesterday we point out that beware of profit taking at this level. We are using this dip to buy NINE, covered GOOG.
we sold our JMDT this morning for 5% profit, and covered GOOG just now for 2% profit ($4).
SNDA and JOBS turned south with the market, and if you still holding short, good! SNDA still has a chance to bounce...if it breaks below 48, short again.
We have cleared most of position except holding SIRI ($9 and $7) short, SYMC ($27 and $25) long, NINE ($10)long, and BWNG long.
we made profit on AGI (26%), GOOG (2%), JMDT (5%), JOBS (2%), OSIP ($10%)....our recommended short JNPR down 10%, APOL down 5%, NFLX long up 10%.
it looks like a Thursday profit taking to me, conservative investors may wait to see if there is any Friday sale. But i would aggressively add NINE, SNDA looks good as long as keeping above 38, JMDT. look at PLMO tonight, should be interesting!

NINE APOL

2004-12-16T09:38:00.000-08:00

NINE: we are increasing our trading buy on NINE now, I expect this IPO eventually will take off again. Good entry point here.
APOL is reacting to their earnings today. Like we pointed out couple of days ago, APOL is likely to get hit after these run up....

2004-12-16T08:39:00.000-08:00

BWNG: we are happy with the performance, and we are going to sit tight with this pick. I entered BWNG when it was 7, and 5.5, and my target for this is 20+. Again, this is not for short term trade. This is a valuation play.
SIRI: this is what i was hoping to see, slowly drifting down rather than one explosive downward day.
DITC: support at 15 looks really good.
NFLX: continue its move, again, short interest is high, no news is good news for NFLX.
GOOG: We don't see any actions with GOOG, and we may move on...
NINE: hoping to see some turnaround today, the support at 10 is important.
SNDA: is bouncing around 40, i suspect that it would make a upside move next, we are going to exit the short position. However, the market cap is a little high. But, again, this is the kind of market that support high valuation-- look at GOOG, LVS, WYNN, JOBS, XMSR, SIRI.....etc....
AGI: our old pick is still doing good, keep an eye on this value play on gaming...
JMDT: we entered a small position yesterday, volume is still low, and we may move on with couple of % point gain today.
SYMC: we are adding a larger position today at 25. It is reaching its critical three months low, looking for a bounce.... but the trend is down, target is around 28-30.
Detox mentioned NCTY: nice gain yesterday and today...the IPOs are doing good lately, but not sure if the risk/reward ratio is good here...thanks Detox.

NINE GOOG SNDA JOBS SIRI BWNG WYNN LVS

2004-12-15T13:47:00.000-08:00

DetoxPR has asked me about my track record. Please see comments from the previous post.
I will mention that up to this date, my protfolio is up 200%. I have made some big gains in one trade, and of course, i did make some errors, but overall is good.
Going back today's action: We may close our position in SNDA tomorrow, as well as JOBS if market shows signs of improvements. BWNG made some huge gain today thanks for the FCC decision.
We have yet made the purchase on DITC and SYMC, but close. Also, just right before the close, we entered a small short position in GOOG.
NINE is not doing well, but let's cross our finger, we are still up from our purchase price. SIRI continues to slide, and it is going to trade within the range for a while.
Watch gambling stock, WYNN and new IPO LVS, i think they are too expensive, but again, the market is irrational, and given LVS's small float, it could be pushed higher if it starts to accumulate short interest. We will keep an eye on it.

BWNG SNDA JOBS NFLX RIMM DITC MSTR JMDT SYMC

2004-12-15T08:40:00.000-08:00

The market is due for some profit taking, but buy in individual stocks that show signs of bottoming or oversold, or open short position. The trend is still up, so all short position is pretty much short term run except for SIRI, buy during a heavy profit taking day should be rewarding.
BWNG: moving up 50c so far, our long term holding is shining today. Keep watching!
SNDA: still watching, SNDA will probably move with market from this point on, put a stop loss. if it fails to close above 40, continue to short, if i close above 40, it probably do better tomorrow.
JOBS: failed rally this morning, now back down to 48 and change, becareful this volatile stock, i would put a stop loss just above 50.
NFLX: showing some strength, i think its worthwhile to buy and wait!
RIMM: looks very weak, but support at 80 holds, we are going to watch RIMM for couple of days before entering our position. It looks like it will break below 80.
MSTR: now just above 60, see if this holds. if it close below 60, i would short it.
DITC: we are going to enter DITC today, somewhere around 15 and change. looks like consolidating and waiting for a bounce.
JMDT: break below its base, but volume is low. Looks weak, but aggressive trader may establish position for a quick bounce.
SYMC: brought down yesterday by news of acquiring VRTS, it may be overdone, and we are buying a small position here.
Good luck trading!

Thank You

2004-12-14T16:27:00.000-08:00

This weblog has only opened for 7 days, and we have seen many friends stopped by and gave a few comments. I have also received quite a bit emails. I have started a similar website before where i post the charts as well, but i found it very hard to keep up with that. I like to make comments here and there, and chat with friends and investors. The previous site reached 100,000 hits in a matter of one month, i like fact that i can discuss with investors and friends to chat about stocks. LIke i said, i learn something new everyday, and i learn from other people as well. However, there are many many many investors out there don't have a clue of what's going on, and we would like to help to share the stories. There have been very good comments/opinions, please keep posting here. We have more than 500 unique visitors so far in a matter of 7 days, and would like to see this continue! Thank you again.

RIMM GOOG NINE NFLX SLAB MSTR

2004-12-14T13:47:00.000-08:00

RIMM opened at $85 as what i expected. I expect the stock to trade within 80-90 for the next few days, becareful if you are jumpin in. i found that court ruling more than "nothing new", but at least the case will still go on. The uncertainty will probably affect the stock's performance. I would buy around $80, and sell (or short at 90), put stop loss to protect your investment!
GOOG: Up nicely on days before the lockup date. The float will increase again, but as what i had pointed out, if it holds 170, watch for a bounce... looks like this bounce is quite strong. Now, i expect the stock to trade sideway until the next lockup date. the lockup in Jan probably will affect the stock's performance more.
NINE: volume has dried up today, we will see what happen in the next few days...
JOBS: gave back all its gain yesterday, the reverse is quite dramatic, and it signals another leg down, at least for another day or so....
NFLX: with BBI's news of eliminating late fee, the competition is getting red hot. With these intense competition, i would expect WMT and AMZN, or whoever wants to get in, would think twice. Only NFLX can compete with BBI currently, and it just make more sense if AMZN wants to go into this business. Let's watch and see. Currently we have no position in NFLX.
SLAB: Watch our any upside movement above 35, looks good if it can break this resistance, but put at stop.
MSTR: Down big time today, you may short at any bounce. It should fill the gap at 48-49, resistance is now at 60.

RIMM SNDA JOBS NVEC

2004-12-14T11:15:00.000-08:00

RIMM:Roller Coaster ride on RIMM. RIMM jumped from $87 to $104 this morning after first hearing that court ruled favorably with RIMM. It was oscillating between $95-$100 before it was halted. That's why i like the stock market, just watching it jumping all over the place is fun. The stock is still halted, and it could actually falls back to $85 when it opens....
SNDA: still weak, one comment asked about SNDA's trend. SNDA looks weak in a short term, since this is just a short term trade stock, the sentiment on this can change daily. My view on this is to watch $38-40 level. Cover if it holds $40, continue to go short if it doesn't.
JOBS: profit taking, we will watch this carefully and determine our cover price.
NVEC: as expected, no follow thru... continue to wait.

12/13 update

2004-12-13T13:52:00.000-08:00

SIRI traded around $8 almost the whole day. Why XMSR gained only 10c for the day, while 40c for SIRI, and in terms of percentage, SIRI's gain seems very irrational compare to XMSR. I agree, and it reflects the psychological affect on stock's own price. SIRI has considerably a lot of shares outstanding, but the price is low. Although it would take a very strong buying pressure to substain the gain, nonetheless, many buyers are stepping in regardless of their outstanding number of shares. If XMSR continues to stand still, or shows weakness, we would expect SIRI to follow real soon, and fall a lot harder.
JOBS: our short position on this is not doing well, and as i mentioned during the last update, wait for weakness to short more. I would expect we can enter the position again tomorrow or the next day.
SNDA: one word, weak. Look for a break below.
NVEC: some nice gain today, however, it could be temporary. Many investors focus on its MRAM product, whether or not it will be a gold for the company. This pop is not easing investors' concern.
NINE: i have posted my comments regarding NINE (look below). Give this stock sometime!
BWNG: still consolidating at $7, our long term holding has no news, but waiting.
OSIP: continue to hold this... nice gain today.
NFLX: some enthusiasm, as stated yesterday, some crowd is coming back, and high short interset would help!
PLMO: conservative investors may want to take profit before wednesday after these run up. But if you believe in PLMO's treo 650, you may hold it over the earnings. I normally don't recommend. You will have time to jump back in if it delivers good report!

12/13 Intraday update

2004-12-13T10:39:00.000-08:00

Our story stocks: PLMO, and NFLX are up nicely.
SNDA is oscillating at temporary support, look for the next move one way or the other to determine to cover or continue to hold.
SIRI is up as expected, but i would expect stock to come down soon.
JOBS is up following its momentum on fri, you may want to wait for first sign of weakness to add in to the position.
OSIP is up nicely this morning, and as i expected, this stock has a good risk/reward potential. Watch for a break above $50.
DITC is approaching $15 again, wait to add the position.

2004-12-12T22:00:00.000-08:00

Some company you may want to pay attention on their earning announcement:
APOL: this education stock has moved up aggressively for the past few months, if earnings and student numbers do not come in as expected, look for more downside to come.
PLMO: palmone stock tends to move one way or the other in a big way everytime they announce earnings. Last quarter, it moved up almost $7 points after hour right after they announce the earnings, however, it lost all the gains and ended up losing $8 several hours later once investors found out they warned about this quarter's earning. The stock moved back to new highs again after one quarter of trading. The new model Treo 650 is one of the hottest smartphone out there, but competitions are there. I expect they will announce impressive earnings, it will gap up strongly given there are 40% of short interest. Investors expect PLMO will announce good earnings given the debut of 650 has no major problems, but if they again give out so-so earning forcast, it will be heading back to 30 in no time.
Other stock worth watching:
SNDK: has been consolidating, i would buy it in any weakness.
DITC: 15 seems to hold quite good, buy in any weakness after last weeks 10% gain.
NFLX: consolidating, very high short interest, Amazon is coming out with DVD rental service in UK, its expected that they will come out one in US soon. Looking at NFLX at its current price, aggressive trader may add some shares if it breaks $12. Longer term investors may buy on any weakness around $10-11. NFLX has good customer base, and i think if Amazon UK DVD doesn't do well, they may really look into buying NFLX instead....(see NFLX news on Walmart's interest in NFLX as well)
JNPR: approaching resistance at $30, i would short again any price around here.
PDII: good price entry point here at $23. Watch for consolidation here.

Another stock watch list 12/12/04

2004-12-12T18:15:00.000-08:00

2004-12-12T18:12:00.000-08:00

Last week Loser:
CGTK -59%, MGPI -26%, VIP -21%, QMED -21%, MTL -18%, MBVT -18%, SHOP -18%, CAAS -18%, KOSP -17%, NSTK -17%, MOBI -16%, ROXI -16%, AGEN -16%, INCX -16%, IIN -16%, UIS -16%, PACT -16%, EXM -15%, PPC -15%, WPTE -15%, GMNT -15%
Last week Gainer:
GEPT +75%, ABIX +44%, NEPF +41%, SNR +41%, CTRX +38%, RCKY +32%, MIX +30%, JOBS +27%, ALOY +26%, ELON +25%, SNDS +25%, ANTP +24%, SOL +24%, INTN +23%, DSCO +23%, CTT +21%, ACP +20%, CMRG +20%, TOL +20%, NGPS +19%, RSYS +19%
From briefing.com:
next week earning watch:
Companies reporting earnings the week of Dec 13th-17th include: Monday, Dec 13th: COO, FCEL, PRSF, CKR... Tuesday, Dec 14th: EASI, PIR, ADCT... Wednesday, Dec 15th: BBY, BMET, LEN, LEH, WGO, VTS, TUTR, MLHR, SCHL, BBBY... Thursday, Dec 16th: JOYG, STEI, CCL, GS, FDX, WOR, RAD, ATU, ENTG, APOL, TTWO, ZQK, ORCL, COMS, CTAS, TEK, VRTY, ADBE, KBH, NKE, PLMO, DRI, PSRC, CHTT... Friday, Dec 17th: CC, KMX, SCS, FDO.

12/12/04 Weekly Update

2004-12-11T23:28:00.000-08:00

SIRI: After the close, XMSR and SIRI are added to the Nasdaq 100. The addition will generally give some boost to the stock. However, we are going to stick with our short position based on its valuation. SIRI is still having higher market cap than XMSR, which doesn't make sense. Satellite radio could be big in the future, however, it seems like it is jumping ahead. With $500m for Howard Stern for 5 years, and other deals such as NFL, SIRI needs to execute carefully in order to avoid any financial crisis in the future. However, SIRI is still in its euphoria stage, but look for opportunity to short aggressively.

SNDA: If $38-$40 holds, cover and move on. However, if it breaks, SNDA may continue to drive down. The stock fails $45 twice last week, heavy selling at any bounce at that level, i am on the short side now until it breaks $45.

JOBS: Very strong volume up day for JOBS last friday. We have entered into our position on Friday, but the stock showed some strength at the end of the day. Our target is $40-$43 range. We would aggressively enter more short position if it moves up above $50. Watch for any fail rally and cover within 2 days.

We are still in BWNG, OSIP, SIRI, JOBS, NINE. long and short.
We receive a lot of emails asking about our pick on SNDA, JOBS, SIRI, BWNG....
Remember, snda, jobs are short term short trade, and siri is more like medium term because of the euphoria on the stock, and BWNG is a long term hold, i am sure it will be rewarding if you give it sometime.

SNDA/JOBS update at close

2004-12-10T13:39:00.000-08:00

Our short position entered intraday on SNDA yielded a 10% gain so far. We are watching again to cover if it holds the last bounce at $38. If it breaks down, look to continue the run down. Stock looks very vulnerable at this time after several attempts of breaking to new highs.
Our new short on JOBS closed with some strength at $49 and change, i expect this pop to be temporary. The move, nonetheless comes with very strong volume, so don't play against the trend if it continues to show strength. Will keep you posted of its development.

JOBS-start with Short/ NINE continues to gain

2004-12-10T08:57:00.000-08:00

Alert:
We entered our target short position in SNDA today at 44.
JOBS: This china portal is showing very strong strength today. We are entering our first short position at 48.5. Keep an eye on it, as the move tends to be big.
The stock looks overextended a bit. We look into it more tonite.

12/9/04 Update-- yesterday's pick: NINE up 10%

2004-12-09T17:30:00.000-08:00

We added NINE yesterday, and gave us a 10% gain in 1 day. Let's hope for a continuous rise, we will watch to see if it will hit 13-14, if it shows weakness, we will sell it.
SIRI (sirius satellite radio) : continue to hold short position
RIMM( research in motion) : missed the chance, but still on our watch list
SNDA (Shanda Interactive): we entered into our short position monday, took profit yesterday. Look to enter short position again around 44.
Watch PDLI, this is not for short term trade, but fundamental looks very good, and i would expect it to reach 25+ within a few months. Put it on your watch list.
Looking to enter NVEC soon, 25 is the key level.
We did really well this week so far:
our first position on SIRI at 7.55, and second position added at 9, both short, now standing at 7.20, a gain of a little over 10%.
BWNG (Broadwing Communication): our long term holding, showing some good strength
OSIP (OSI Pharmaceuticals) : still waiting for news, only a small position.
YAKC (YAK Communications): so far down $0.20, still waiting for movement.
AGI (Alliance Gaming): may sell to take profit if no sign to buck the trend.
SNDA: Quick trade with $4 profit during the first round of shorting.
RIMM: Quick trade intraday to pocket $5 profit.
NINE: So far with two days gain of 10%.

continue to look at CYBX, BBBB, GOOG, NVEC, MSO.

CYBX BBBB GOOG NVEC MSO

2004-12-08T23:12:00.000-08:00

Put these stocks on your watch list as big movements may be just days ahead.
CYBX: response from FDA regarding its VNA device should due before Jan. If FDA reverses its decision, it is going to shoot back to 40, a 100% gain.
BBBB: lock up period is coming soon, it may pop briefly after the day is over....look at the movement and enter for a quick trade.
GOOG: similar situation to BBBB, large amount of shares will be unlocked. You can short it, or wait for good entry point for a quick bounce.
NVEC: look for support at $25, this MRAM play could be a big winner if it ever announce a contract (to receive royalty from motorola or other semi co.)
MSO: continue to rise on Martha Stewart news, but it may be running ahead of itself. However, the large short interest may continue to drive the stock higher. Wait for the day the stock goes overextended.

12/8 Update: Big gain for us on yesterday's call: SIRI

2004-12-08T13:49:00.000-08:00

SIRI: everyday SIRI, we aggressively shorted SIRI yesterday. BOOM, today it dropped 20% to $7. This is expected, but it happened so quick! Anyhow, we are holding our short position until $6 or even lower depending on the news.
NINE: this new IPO has been drifting lower since the first day of IPO, look for a bounce anytime soon. we enter our first buy at $10.
Some holiday shopping stock you want to watch, Ecost (ECST), overstock.com(ostk), Shopping.com (SHOP). short it when it pops.
We are holding to watch RIMM's movement.

12/7/04 Update

2004-12-07T09:44:00.000-08:00

SIRI is making news again. As expected, they are coming out with all these good news during this holiday season. We are shorting it aggressively at this point ($8.9), it is way overbought. Stock will have large pressure at $10 psychological point, but i think that stock will start to bounce around $7-$9 range after holiday.
After a quick trade yesterday with RIMM, we are waiting for the chance again. Look for weakness in GOOG, another lock up release again in about 10 days. This is going to create yet another round of short selling. However, remember that there is a large short interest already, it was about 30% before the first lock up release, then down to about 10% after the first lock up. I can only imagine that this figure should be quite high as many investors believe that it is overvalued. This round of lock up release is large than the previous one, and it may create more downward pressure. It hold $170 last time, and bounced strongly after the lock up date. I would expect the same this time, but the price MAY go down to $150. If it breaks $165, look to cover around $150. If it holds, cover and move on.
AMD came out with two downgrades today, if you look at its chart, its amazing! Look for downward pressure and it may reach $20 after holiday.
Another stock to watch after the holiday is AAPL. Look for shares to come under pressure on APPLE because all the good news about ipod. I agree that ipod is hot, and it is being expanded to use in many different ways, but the share is running ahead of itself. It may slowly drift lower after holiday.

12/6/04 Update

2004-12-06T18:35:00.000-08:00

If you opened a short position like i did this morning on RIMM, you will make 5% intraday. I jumped on to open short position when i updated my post (at $94.7), then some rumors surface again regarding their NTP case (NTP sues RIMM for violation of their patent rights). This issue will still affect RIMM's performance (it dropped to $75 several weeks ago because of concerns about this case). If no news come out in the next several days, it will attempt to break above $95 again, but if there is news, it will move either way quite extensively.

SIRI: SIRI again tops the chart by two news. One is the rumor of sirus radio/ ipod hyrid, it was first posted at www.Orbitcast.com . We think that it makes sense to have satellite radio ipod, but they claimed to produce the portable version in 2005, XMSR just delivered their own first portable satellite radio, XMSR's technology is more advance than SIRI. We don't believe SIRI can create SIRI/ipod hybrid by Jan 2005. From briefing.com: "But there are some possible technical hurdles to a sat iPod that must be noted. Several analysts I spoke to today said SIRI isn't far enough along with its technology to launch an iPod with a satellite radio receiver. SIRI is on its 2.5-generation chipset, and analysts said the company is expected to launch its portable-ready 3rd-generation in the fall of '05. Some note that even the 3-gen chipset might not be advanced enough to run a satellite receiver in an iPod, so they remain skeptical that such an offering is coming any time soon." Secondly, at their CSFB conference, they delivered what the fans are hoping for, goal to reach 1M subscriber happen soon, study indicates more people will sign up for satellite radio... watch for the end of holiday seasons to aggressively short the stock.

Stock to watch 12/6

2004-12-06T10:40:00.000-08:00

Siri: making news again on possible ipod-siri combo. will visit this issue later
RIMM: attempt to break out, look for short position entry.
SNDA: Look for entry point for short position.

12/4/04 Stock Watch List

2004-12-04T23:52:00.000-08:00

Every week, i will post some stocks to watch. Again, please no pump and dump comments.
The stock watch list is for your review, discuss/exchange info.
I will post new stocks to watch anytime during the week, so check back often.

I watch in average 200 stocks a day, i should say screen. The real one that i pay attention are approximately 50 of them. There are thousands of stocks out there that is acting up, and the bigger and larger our group, the more stocks we will be able to pick up!

Here is the stocks that i am watching this week:

AGI: put this gaming stock in your watch list. This stock had a nice run up from $9 to $12, stabilizing here around $12. looks like it has another leg move up. Watch for a nice move up above $13 as an entry point, it should has momentum to go up to $16 then.

BWNG: Stock has been strong last week, moving slowly from $5.5 to $7. The stock finally shows some sign after the 10:1 reverse split. Although telecom stock is not one of the favorite in the industry, this is one good Gem that we think it will double or triple within the next 6 months. This stock is for investors who has a mid long term horizon. Examining the balance sheet, no large long term debt, Focal communication's acquisition will contribute to its revenue, making it a $1 billion revenue company. About $4.5 cash in stock, if no more dilution (news should be out soon), it should explode to $12-13. However, i predict this stock to see $20 in a very short time (that gives BWNG a market cap of only $1.2 billion, a discount from its peers).

OSIP: Tarceva's news continues to control OSIP's price. Traders are waiting for Iressa's trial, which should be released very shortly. If Iressa shows similar survival rate, Tarceva may come under some pressure, and the expected sales figure may need to further adjusted downward. Last two weeks, OSIP dropped $20 because of FDA's early approval/unexpected narrower indication. Aggressive traders can add position at this price, but watch for price drop if unfriendly news hit during the next couple weeks. On the other hand, favorable news may propel the stocks back to $65 range easily. We felt that OSIP's risk/reward potential is favorable, and a small position can be added.

SIRI: Stock performed unbelievably well for the past two weeks because of a flooding of good news. The valuation for this stock is reaching $8 billion, and the stock is extremely overvalue. Over the Holiday Season, the stock could stay at this hefty valuation level. We recommend putting this stock on your watch list. For aggressive trader, you can start shorting this stock at this level. After holiday, the stock should drift lower slowly. XMSR has a 1 yr lead technology, substantially more subscriber (2M vs 800,000), yet SIRI has a higher market cap than XMSR. The satellite radio still has a long way to profitability, and we would assign a fair value at $5.5.

YAKC: This low market cap stock may have a run soon, YAKC has $1.7 cash, it is profitable, and low float. The stock has been going lower slowly over the past few weeks. The stock is stabilizing, and our short term target goal is $8.

Our pick this week:
AGI: $11.9 (our entry price: $9.5)
BWNG: $7.55 (our entry price: $5.5)
OSIP: $47 (our entry price: $46.9)
SIRI: $7.55 SHORT (our entry price: $7.55)
YAKC: $5.889 (our entry price: $ 5.92)

5% rule

2004-12-04T23:16:00.000-08:00

I am republishing this 5% rule from my previous website. If you are new to the market, and your goal is to have constant income/profit weekly/monthly, i would suggest you to stick with some type of preset rule.
Again, experienced traders are able to adjust your opinion on a particular stock and activate a trade to cut loss/pocket the gains. If you are inexperienced, the hardest thing is not how to pick the best stock, but when to sell the stocks. Obviously, buying a stock at the right price is important, but you have to be able to sell to lock in your gains. One key word, stick with your target price, don't be greedy.
I have introduced this to many of my readers, you may say it sounds easy, but it is really tough to apply. Imagine if you can grow your principal at a compounded rate of 5% weekly, a mere $10,000 will turn into $21,000 in 4 months if you consistently deliver a 5% return and allow your gains to continue to work. Of course, life is not perfect, sometimes you just don't have any luck to deliver 5% gain a week, BUT, allow yourself to target 5% every 2 weeks should not be too hard, and it will also allow you to profit some handsome gains.
Now, ask yourself if you can make 5% a week. We are talking about a stock that jumps from $10 to $10.50, or a $50 stock to $52.5. The key is your entry point, and execute at your target exist point.
Paper trade before you execute your real trade, practice practice and practice. Remember, the more your trade, the more you read, the better you will execute your trade.
I recommend you to post your comments on stocks idea, exchange info/news, and discuss.
However, please do not use this blog site to pump and dump. Thanks!

Weekly Performance 12/4/04

2004-12-03T23:29:00.000-08:00

12/4/04
the past week worst performer:

BIVN -26%, ELOS -25%, NVI -21%, SCSS -20%, HOTT -20%, SKIL -19%, BOOM -19%, ALNY -19%, BBQZ -18%, LMIA -17%, BBA -17%, MIND -16%, VNUS -16%, CNLG -16%, GLNG -16%, FOXH -15%, GPIC -15%, WTZ -14%, RCCC -14%, FUND -13%, KNTA -13%, RES -13%, ABB -13%, CATS -13

Best performers:

CAAS +100%, NSDA +53%, NGEN +51%, GORX +46%, CTRX +37%, MTMC +35%, ZANE +35%, ISIS +34%, DOC +34%, BWNG +32%, PRFT +32%, NKTR +31%, AUGT +29%, KONG +27%, KLIC +27%, VLTR +26%, KLIC +26%, CREAF +26%, LEND +25%, SNR +25%, VLTR +24%, AGEN +24%, SBAC +24%, WPTE +23%, PARL +23%